Written by ADS Aerospace Policy Adviser, Tom Oldham

What’s new?

Provisional statistics show that approximately 141 million litres of sustainable aviation fuel[1] have been supplied in the UK this year[2], a 45% increase on the amount supplied during the whole of 2023[3].

Between January and September, SAF made up 0.4% of total fuel supplied in the UK, sourced primarily from used cooking oil and category one tallow.[4] However, the statistics also show that the UK secured its supply from around the world, highlighting the urgent need to build a reliable source of domestic production here in the UK.

Why do the statistics matter?

Next year will be critical in the UK’s journey to net zero aviation emissions. In January, the SAF mandate will come into force, requiring aviation fuel suppliers to meet 2% of demand with SAF in 2025, estimated to be approximately 230 million litres[5]. The UK Government will also introduce a Bill to create a revenue certainty mechanism for SAF producers, reducing risk and giving investors the confidence they need.

While these statistics represent yet another encouraging step forward, they do also highlight the scale of the challenge facing the UK. Creating commercial scale SAF production will require billions of pounds of investment, but with the mandate coming into force before the RCM, there are concerns that domestic supply won’t be able to keep up with demand – which will increase on a linear basis to 10% – or 1.5 billion litres – by 2030.[6]

What can the Government do to help?

So that the UK is best able to take advantage of huge growth in the global SAF market, it’s vital that the UK Government introduces the Sustainable Aviation Fuel (Revenue Support Mechanism) Bill to Parliament at the earliest opportunity. Of course, it’s also important that the Bill is comprehensive in nature, reflecting the earlier implementation of the SAF mandate. Leaving the detail to be tackled in secondary legislation could be risky and leave the UK reliant on foreign imports in the short to medium term. Investment will also be vital to deliver the infrastructure required for the production, transportation, and use of SAF.

What does all this mean for industry?

Today’s statistics represent a welcome continuation of the upward trend seen in UK SAF supplies over the last few years. However, they also expose just how much further the UK has to go to if it is to meet its mandated targets from next year. Critical to that will be the establishment of a scaled-up SAF production and distribution network, a significant endeavour demanding considerable investment.

While the Advanced Fuel Fund represents an encouraging start, industry must continue to work with Government to deliver the RCM Bill as an urgent priority so that investors can have the confidence to support domestic SAF production. The prize is huge with the sector estimated to add over £1.8 billion to the economy and create over 10,000 jobs[7]. But this can only be realised if the UK continues to foster a competitive investment environment and regulatory system.

We know that with the support of Government and investors working together, the sector is ready to take advantage of this opportunity. Next year’s statistics will make for interesting reading.

 

[1] Defined as Avtur (Renewable)

[2] Department for Transport, Renewable fuel statistics 2024: Second provisional release, RF_0101, 21/11/24, link

[3] Department for Transport, Renewable fuel statistics 2023: Fifth provisional release, RF_0101, 14/08/24, link

[4] Department for Transport, Renewable fuel statistics 2024: Second provisional release, RF_0105a, 21/11/24, link

[5] Department for Transport, Government response to the second consultation on the SAF Mandate, p9, 25/04/24 link

[6] Department for Transport, SAF Mandate, Summary of consultation responses and government response, 23/09/21, link

[7] Written statement to Parliament, Sustainable aviation fuel initiatives, 22/07/24, link