Over the last month, a number of long term market forecasts have been released by Embraer, Bombardier and Boeing respectively (Airbus will release their Global Market Forecast in September ). Boeing’s forecast in particular outlines an interesting statistic expected by 2033 – that industry will require more maintenance technicians (584,000) than pilots (533,000) over the next 20 years, in order to keep the expected growth in fleet numbers flying.
With over 30,000 new aircraft expected to be delivered by 2033, expanding the spread of MRO skills and knowledge is vital. As well as the large numbers of technicians, it is also the particular skills they must posses which is perhaps even more important. As airlines invest in newer aircraft technology, and will continue to invest as that technology develops, technicians must be able to understand the composition of new materials used on aircraft and in the manufacturing process; be able to create new maintenance procedures to reflect the use of these new materials and ensure that aircraft do not lose revenue making time sat in maintenance hangars; and also understand the changes in engineering behind the introduction of new components across the aircraft.
It is therefore vital that not only industry and UK encourages more young people to study STEM projects and take up opportunities such as the AGP MSc bursaries into aircraft engineering, but also that there is an even more closer environment for airlines and aerospace manufacturers to work together as new technology is introduced.
In addition to this, the geographical spread in technician requirements Boeing outline also presents industry with both an opportunity and a threat. According to the forecast, the Asia-Pacific region will require more than double the technicians of the US and Europe.
The opportunity lies where airlines in emerging markets will need to outsource its MRO activity in the short to medium term to ensure they have the skills required to maintain their new fleets. This presents companies and technicians in Europe with the opportunity to ‘fill the gaps’ in aircraft technology and manufacturing that are still only just developing in these emerging aviation markets. As Boeing states in its forecast, this will also drive the need for greater training to be provided to domestic MRO companies and providers, which can be delivered by European and UK expertise.
The threat however may rest in the ability for industry and new airlines to meet this technician demand in emerging nations – particularly if the opportunities for young people in these markets to learn about engineering, and aerospace manufacturing, which are prevalent in the UK, are not as available. If the required expertise and sheer number of technicians is not adequately met, airlines will not be able to fulfil the demand for travel expected in these markets, and their aircraft could spend longer on the ground than in the air.
